Return of Godzilla

HA!! Was that a silly scary movie or what? If you were under 7 years old you might be scared, but it was so ridiculous that it was hard not to just laugh. No laughing matter with our inventory of homes for sale in and around Santa Fe NM. So I am calling the new larger inventory Godzilla, although there is no reason to be fearful.

Over the last 5 years, inventory has grown from January 1st to July 1st each year. It is a seasonal phenomenon and its been going on since someone first kept track of statistics. From Jan 1, 2009 thru Jan 1, 2013 (5 years of numbers) the increase in inventory over the first 6 months for each of those periods was 25%, 22%, 10%, 9% and 26%. With that sort of growth in our inventory, I have trouble understanding why some say we don’t have homes to sell to our buyer customers.

On July 1, 2013, our inventory of homes, townhouses and condos in Santa Fe city and county stood at 1760. The number of homes sold in the prior 12 months was almost that many so we have a little more than one year’s supply to go into the sold column, plus new listings are coming online everyday. As new listings are equal to or more than the solds, our numbers are not getting better very fast.

The shadow inventory that we feared has contributed to the increase in inventory. There is an unknown number of homes out there that the owners would love to sell, but they have waited for the right time to try again. Some decided this year was the right time based on the increase in inventory. Others will wait until next spring while some homeowners do not have the luxury of picking a season. They might need to sell now.

In 6 months, I am going to guess we will still have about a year’s worth of inventory and I will then be reporting on how many homes are selling versus how many are being taken off the market by owners allowing their listing agreements  to expire. This long slog through the mud of our real estate market recovering is still going to take some more time. Buyers, get your pencils sharpened. Deals are still out there!

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