Just a crazy, mixed up recovery

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You know you are having trouble with your eyesight when you read a headline that says the real estate recovery is well underway and homes will grow in value over the next few years. Predictions are for an increase of over 10% for unit sales in the next year. We thought this day would never come.

Then the very next minute you see that home sales were down in a certain price range over the past 12 months. Nobody said Santa Fe NM would be predictable.

But the news is really good this time. For all price ranges, the number of homes sold grew from year-end 6.30.11 to year-end 6.30.12 – in fact the increase was a nice 9.8% increase, from 1306 to 1435 homes. See link to Absorption Rate – All Price Ranges on the right of the home page.

And improving  the mood was a reduction in inventory from 1861 to 1715, a decrease of 146 homes listed – another nice percentage – 12.75% lower. And my favorite stat, the Absorption Rate, fell from a calculation of 17.1 months to 14.34 months to absorb the entire inventory. Those are all great results.

But is it all champagne and chocolate (or is that wine and roses?) for the Santa Fe real estate market? In the price ranges I track, viewable in charts available by clicking the links on the right side of the home page, everything has improved except the Million plus category. That actually went down just a little. So overall, we can safely say we are well on our way to recovery.

This is where we hope that the outside influences and factors don’t put a damper on our progress. We are certain that folks in Washington are not going to resolve the large-scale budget crisis during this election year. The fiscal disaster we are apparently headed for is just not as important as getting campaign donations and putting out PAC paid TV ads.

But can’t we just grow our way out of this economic mess? Well, not if growth is meager and halting as it is now.

And you may know I am already on record as fearing the worst for us in little old USA if the Euro countries cannot agree to resolve their inequities and imbalances. Can a citizen of Greece plan to retire at 58 and a citizen of Germany at 67 and still use the same currency and keep the same fiscal house in order? Guess who has the money and the good credit?

Globally we have no idea if our unusual weather is a blip or a trend. The TV news will tell you what will happen to food prices over the next 6 to 36 months. Gas prices went down the last couple weeks, or did they go up? What can we count on?

Real estate was cast as just a supporting actor in the economic drama we are still learning to live with. Between elected officials and money changers, neither group had the confidence to put the housing sector in charge of leading the comeback.

But we are coming back anyway, without their help, because people want to live in their own home. They want safety and security, which is not readily available when they have to pay rent to someone. Home ownership is not a right, but it is still a goal and if you don’t have a goal, what are you working for?

Real estate is fun and interesting and challenging and satisfying for most everyone that gets involved. I love to see a buyer prospect dissect the online details of listings in their price range. By the time they are ready to look inside the homes, they have already eliminated 98% of the inventory and picked out their favorites.

And yes, we have a desk for you at Keller Williams Realty in Santa Fe. Haven’t you heard how easy it is to make a killing in real estate sales? I promise I will help you get started.

Posted in Home Values, Posts & Updates, Santa Fe area real estate, Statistical Data - Santa Fe real estate market and tagged , , , .

The writer is a 68 year-old young man engaged as an active REALTOR (associate broker) with Keller Williams, in real estate sales and management in the Santa Fe NM market area. My career has been in and around the real estate industry for more than 35 years, ranging from mortgage lending (interim, commercial, residential); residential property management and leasing; shopping center development and leasing; real estate sales; sales training; title insurance as an executive and an escrow officer; various management positions; consulting and other related activities. That plus a bunch of banking experience including our family-owned Bank of Santa Fe in the 1980s. Where has the time gone?
My background means you have my working knowledge of the entire transaction process at your disposal. That comes with honesty and no bullshit.