November 2009

Hits: 5

Until we get around to seeing the new flick AVATAR, we will just have to work with the real world as we see it. The special effects of this new James Cameron movie are supposed to be beyond anything before now; Cameron invents a new world and new language to make it all work. Until the day we can relocate to his new world, we are stuck here in Santa Fe, NM, which is a pretty nice place to be stuck. Speaking of proper names, can you think of any other Santa Fe that can be considered our equal? I know there are lots of similar names that appear in states and countries all over. Which Bloomington have you been near lately? But we seem to have the bragging rights with our little Santa Fe. And that’s the way it should be. Love those bragging rights. As much as we can disagree about the future of our town, we still are proud to call it home, and brag to our friends that can only visit.

One of the most talked about and most examined segments of business in Santa Fe was always residential real estate. Maybe that’s why this newsletter has become widely distributed. We know the personality types that plug into the local real estate scene in their own special way. And we have usually welcomed that for diversity and for that flow of cash into our market. While that has not stopped, it has downsized dramatically. Second home buyers are still coming and growing families are still moving up in size and price. It’s just not as fast as we all want. The latest news is the recent extension of the first time homebuyer tax credit. Without the information available to be exact, it seems to have really helped sales of homes in Santa Fe the last few months. Great news!

So what is there to say today? Seems like the same message as always; now is the time to buy. Going back thru the full range of emotions we have all experienced over the last 3 years, we know if we are still here that we have accomplished something. Many others have moved on or faded away or simply moved to other pastures. We know the rules of financing have changed (and are still changing) and that has kept some from purchasing, and thus affecting some who hoped to sell. We now realize our homes should not have been treated like ATMs and we now understand that the value of a home does not always go up. We might feel complicit in the economic difficulties of recent years; then still wonder why we are being punished for the ‘sins’ of others. We know there is a limited “best” time to buy, yet we have been talking for months about now being that time. And the good news is that the right time to buy will continue for a few more months. After that, you will have waited too long. Price increases are likely to begin just a few months into the next year. Wait at the risk of paying more next summer than you would pay now.

The usual absorption rate chart is attached and this time it shows improvement in most categories. We know some of that can be seasonal, but inventory is down while sales are mostly steady; therefore the # of months has come down that it would take at current levels of sales to absorb all inventory. In addition to the attachment, the chart below has a running count of sales of improved residential property in Santa Fe City and County. The best news could be an improvement from this month this year over same month last year. Just as good is that October 2009 shows the single largest monthly total so far this year. So there you have it. All your hard work may be starting to pay off. Maybe this winter will not be a predictable off season as buyers realize bargains are there and grab what they want now, while it’s available, instead of next June, when it may be gone.

Once again, if anyone has other statistical studies they would like to see, please let me know.