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It is that time of year (between Indian Market and Fiestas) when Santa Fe, NM locals start to reclaim their town from the hordes of visitors and life here starts to return to normal.
Its also that time of year when it is prudent to take stock of how the full year may turn out, as we are 2/3 of the way thru 2011 today. Any numbers you have now are pretty close to 67% of what your annual totals will be. Or take your current number, whatever number you measure your success by, and multiply by 1.5 and stare at that for a couple minutes. Don’t you think mathematics can be fun? But normal? Who said normal? Normal would be a whole lot better than what is going on right now. This time of year we are usually seeing the results of spending by tourists along with the results of real estate transactions closing that have recently been negotiated. But the downtown Santa Fe merchants seem to be singing the blues, as the visitors are staying in hotels and motels and eating and drinking as always, but not spending much more than that on their vacation to Santa Fe. I know there are exceptions to every generality, but if you know a retail merchant in downtown Santa Fe, ask him or her how things are going. I do not have a scientific survey of how business is faring, but the anecdotal reports are not enthusiastic.
In the statistics I have been publishing on this blog (and the former newsletter version this blog grew out of), the total homes sold in Santa Fe city and county for the month of August, 2011 is not going to show improvement from the same month last year or the prior months this year. The actual numbers are not published until approximately the 10th, so it will be a week or more before we can know for sure, but early indications are that August 2011 has been one of the worst late summer months of real estate sales in years. Including June, July, August, September and October of every year beginning in 2001, we have had only one month out of those 100 + months that shows a lower total for one single month than August of 2011. Please check back and look on the right side of my homepage for a link called Monthly Home Sales Comparison; that is where the actual monthly numbers will be, by the 10th of each month. Hopefully some stragglers will report in and it will improve the outlook.
I so want to report some good news on this blog, but the numbers are exactly as they are, without my spinning them into some wishful thinking or arranging them in language marbled with hidden excuses and blame. It’s difficult to change my false and unfair reputation as someone that dwells on the negative aspects of our real estate market when the numbers just refuse to get better. Do you blame the doctor when the patient dies? Do you shoot the messenger when you are given bad news? Someone needs to step away from their computer and go buy a house. And I would love to buy one I previewed near me – what a bargain! – listed at $265,000 today when the foreclosure notice published last year showed total mortgage debt of the former owner at $479,000. Was it ever worth $479,000? Not likely! Is it worth $265,000 today? Without a doubt! Someone hurry quick buy it so I will know who my neighbors will be. Winning!
